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Kasımpaşa vs Amed Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Kasımpaşa

PPG 1.28 · HOME

LAST 5

DWD ··

UPCOMING

Amed

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-19.6%0-25.3%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.6%1-112.8%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.8%2-18.6%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.5%3-13.8%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 42.0% 2.38 +1.1%

Draw 27.2% 32.3% 3.10 -9.4%

Away win 30.3% 34.5% 2.90 -12.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 52.9% 54.6% 1.83 -3.2%

Home O1.5 39.3% 40.0% 2.50 -1.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 36.4% 2.75 -8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 42% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 0–0 8.6%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kasımpaşa1.3

Amed1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KASIMPAŞA · PPG 1.28

AMED · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kasımpaşa (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +1.1%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.4%

Amed (A) 30.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kasımpaşa face Amed in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kasımpaşa a 43% chance, the draw 27% and Amed 30%, so Kasımpaşa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kasımpaşa and 1.1 for Amed (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.25 for Amed. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.0%.

Kasımpaşa vs Amed Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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