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Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:00

Kocaelispor

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LWW ··

UPCOMING

Samsunspor

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-18.9%0-24.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.5%1-112.6%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-18.9%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.9%3-14.2%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 40.8% 2.45 +9.5%

Draw 26.2% 33.3% 3.00 -12.8%

Away win 29.1% 34.5% 2.90 -9.4%

Over 2.5 52.0% 44.4% 2.25 +17.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 25.0% 4.00 +26.4%

BTTS 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Home O1.5 39.9% 38.2% 2.62 +4.5%

Away O1.5 33.1% 36.4% 2.75 -9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kocaelispor1.4

Samsunspor1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KOCAELISPOR · PPG 1.67

SAMSUNSPOR · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kocaelispor (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +9.5%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.8%

Samsunspor (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kocaelispor face Samsunspor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kocaelispor a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Samsunspor 29%, so Kocaelispor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Kocaelispor and 1.1 for Samsunspor (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kocaelispor are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.67 for Samsunspor. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.4%.

Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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