Today / Malawi - Super League / MAFCO vs Moyale Barracks

MAFCO vs Moyale Barracks Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:30

MAFCO

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

UPCOMING

Moyale Barracks

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-18.9%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.8%1-111.8%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.5%2-17.8%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.5%3-13.4%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 40.8% 2.45 +21.3%

Draw 27.9% 34.7% 2.88 -11.8%

Away win 22.6% 35.7% 2.80 -22.0%

Over 2.5 40.3% 38.2% 2.62 +5.6%

Over 3.5 20.9% 19.4% 5.15 +4.6%

BTTS 43.7% 48.1% 2.08 -9.1%

Home O1.5 38.6% 34.1% 2.93 +13.1%

Away O1.5 15.7% 29.9% 3.34 -28.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.7%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.8%

#2 0–0 14.2%

#3 2–0 12.5%

#4 1–1 11.8%

#5 0–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MAFCO1.3

Moyale Barracks0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MAFCO · PPG 1.71

MOYALE BARRACKS · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

50%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

MAFCO (H) 49.5%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +21.3%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -11.8%

Moyale Barracks (A) 22.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -22.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

MAFCO face Moyale Barracks in Malawi - Super League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MAFCO a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Moyale Barracks 23%, so MAFCO are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for MAFCO and 0.6 for Moyale Barracks (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MAFCO are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.71 for Moyale Barracks. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +13.1%.

MAFCO vs Moyale Barracks Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Malawi - Super League Predictions