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Karonga United vs Chitipa United Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 12:30

Karonga United

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Chitipa United

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-18.6%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.3%1-112.4%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.0%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.9%3-14.3%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 50.0% 2.00 -4.8%

Draw 26.9% 33.3% 3.00 -11.6%

Away win 25.5% 27.8% 3.60 -4.9%

Over 2.5 44.8% 40.0% 2.50 +12.0%

Over 3.5 27.3% 28.6% 3.50 -2.7%

BTTS 49.1% 53.5% 1.87 -8.2%

Home O1.5 40.0% — — —

Away O1.5 22.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.1%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.4%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karonga United1.4

Chitipa United0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KARONGA UNITED · PPG 1.14

CHITIPA UNITED · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Karonga United (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -4.8%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.6%

Chitipa United (A) 25.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karonga United face Chitipa United in Malawi - Super League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karonga United a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Chitipa United 26%, so Karonga United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Karonga United and 0.9 for Chitipa United (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karonga United are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.50 for Chitipa United. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Karonga United vs Chitipa United Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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