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Moyale Barracks vs Kamuzu Barracks Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:30

Moyale Barracks

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Kamuzu Barracks

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-17.0%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.1%1-111.2%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.0%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.9%3-14.8%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-12.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 52.4% 1.91 -0.3%

Draw 25.1% 34.5% 2.90 -16.3%

Away win 22.6% 25.0% 4.00 -5.8%

Over 2.5 44.8% 40.0% 2.50 +12.0%

Over 3.5 26.8% 22.0% 4.55 +13.2%

BTTS 47.6% 48.1% 2.08 -1.0%

Home O1.5 47.4% 42.0% 2.38 +12.8%

Away O1.5 17.9% 24.4% 4.10 -16.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.1%

#2 2–0 12.9%

#3 1–1 11.2%

#4 0–0 10.1%

#5 0–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moyale Barracks1.6

Kamuzu Barracks0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MOYALE BARRACKS · PPG 2.00

KAMUZU BARRACKS · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Moyale Barracks (H) 52.2%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -0.3%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -16.3%

Kamuzu Barracks (A) 22.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Moyale Barracks face Kamuzu Barracks in Malawi - Super League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moyale Barracks a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Kamuzu Barracks 23%, so Moyale Barracks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Moyale Barracks and 0.7 for Kamuzu Barracks (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moyale Barracks are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Kamuzu Barracks. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Moyale Barracks vs Kamuzu Barracks Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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