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Hapoel Marmorek vs Hapoel Hadera Prediction— Israel - Liga Alef

South · Matchday 1 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 09:45

Hapoel Marmorek

PPG 0.94 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hapoel Hadera

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.9%0-25.5%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.4%1-111.7%1-28.1%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-18.6%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.1%3-14.2%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 27.8% 3.60 +44.4%

Draw 24.2% 26.3% 3.80 -4.8%

Away win 35.8% 57.8% 1.73 -38.1%

Over 2.5 57.6% 51.3% 1.95 +12.3%

Over 3.5 35.2% 30.5% 3.28 +15.5%

BTTS 59.0% 54.9% 1.82 +7.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 27.9% 3.58 +42.8%

Away O1.5 42.2% 54.3% 1.84 -22.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.0%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hapoel Marmorek1.5

Hapoel Hadera1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.6% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HAPOEL MARMOREK · PPG 0.94

HAPOEL HADERA · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hapoel Marmorek (H) 40.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +44.4%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.8%

Hapoel Hadera (A) 35.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -38.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hapoel Marmorek face Hapoel Hadera in Israel - Liga Alef on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hapoel Marmorek a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Hapoel Hadera 36%, so Hapoel Marmorek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hapoel Marmorek and 1.4 for Hapoel Hadera (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hapoel Marmorek are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 1.50 for Hapoel Hadera. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +42.8%.

Hapoel Marmorek vs Hapoel Hadera Prediction— Israel - Liga Alef

Match Preview & Prediction

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