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Nordia Jerusalem vs Dimona Prediction— Israel - Liga Alef

South · Matchday 1 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 14:00

Nordia Jerusalem

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dimona

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 56.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.8%0-25.5%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.4%1-111.6%1-28.1%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-18.6%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.1%3-14.3%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 23.1% 4.33 +74.5%

Draw 24.1% 25.6% 3.90 -3.6%

Away win 35.7% 61.7% 1.62 -42.2%

Over 2.5 58.4% 57.1% 1.75 +2.2%

Over 3.5 35.5% 34.2% 2.92 +3.7%

BTTS 59.0% 56.8% 1.76 +3.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 27.5% 3.64 +45.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 58.8% 1.70 -28.3%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.0%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nordia Jerusalem1.5

Dimona1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NORDIA JERUSALEM · PPG 1.00

DIMONA · PPG 1.41

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nordia Jerusalem (H) 40.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +74.5%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -3.6%

Dimona (A) 35.7%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -42.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nordia Jerusalem face Dimona in Israel - Liga Alef on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nordia Jerusalem a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Dimona 36%, so Nordia Jerusalem are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Nordia Jerusalem and 1.4 for Dimona (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nordia Jerusalem are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.41 for Dimona. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +100.3%.

Nordia Jerusalem vs Dimona Prediction— Israel - Liga Alef

Match Preview & Prediction

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