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Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Tira Prediction— Israel - Liga Alef

North · Matchday 1 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 13:00

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tira

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 56.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.9%0-25.5%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.4%1-111.7%1-28.1%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-18.6%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.1%3-14.2%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 18.2% 5.50 +120.5%

Draw 24.2% 26.3% 3.80 -4.8%

Away win 35.8% 66.7% 1.50 -46.3%

Over 2.5 56.9% 54.1% 1.85 +5.3%

Over 3.5 35.0% 33.7% 2.97 +4.0%

BTTS 59.0% 53.8% 1.86 +9.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 23.0% 4.35 +73.6%

Away O1.5 42.2% 61.0% 1.64 -30.8%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.0%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed1.5

Tira1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.9% · O3.5 PROB 35.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MACCABI NUJEIDAT AHMED · PPG 1.17

TIRA · PPG 1.71

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed (H) 40.1%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +120.5%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.8%

Tira (A) 35.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -46.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed face Tira in Israel - Liga Alef on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Tira 36%, so Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed and 1.4 for Tira (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.71 for Tira. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +73.6%.

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Tira Prediction— Israel - Liga Alef

Match Preview & Prediction

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