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Holon Yermiyahu vs Hapoel Ramat HaSharon Prediction— Israel - Liga Alef

South · Matchday 1 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 11:20

Holon Yermiyahu

PPG 1.23 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.9%0-25.4%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.7%1-111.8%1-28.0%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.4%2-18.7%2-25.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.2%3-14.3%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% 45.5% 2.20 -8.9%

Draw 23.7% 30.8% 3.25 -13.8%

Away win 34.9% 34.7% 2.88 +0.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 34.2% 33.7% 2.97 +1.6%

BTTS 59.0% 61.3% 1.63 -3.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 47.6% 2.10 -16.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 39.4% 2.54 +7.2%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.0%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Holon Yermiyahu1.5

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HOLON YERMIYAHU · PPG 1.23

HAPOEL RAMAT HASHARON · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Holon Yermiyahu (H) 41.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -8.9%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.8%

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Holon Yermiyahu face Hapoel Ramat HaSharon in Israel - Liga Alef on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Holon Yermiyahu a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 35%, so Holon Yermiyahu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Holon Yermiyahu and 1.4 for Hapoel Ramat HaSharon (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Holon Yermiyahu are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 0.94 for Hapoel Ramat HaSharon. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +7.2%.

Holon Yermiyahu vs Hapoel Ramat HaSharon Prediction— Israel - Liga Alef

Match Preview & Prediction

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