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Maccabi Yavne vs Hapoel Azor Prediction— Israel - Liga Alef

South · Matchday 1 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 15:45

Maccabi Yavne

PPG 1.65 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hapoel Azor

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3% — a clear edge.

+11.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.5%0-25.2%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.3%1-111.5%1-28.0%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-18.8%2-26.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.2%3-14.5%3-23.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 57.8% 1.73 -27.0%

Draw 23.4% 28.6% 3.50 -10.9%

Away win 34.4% 25.0% 4.00 +37.6%

Over 2.5 59.6% 50.0% 2.00 +19.2%

Over 3.5 36.4% 29.9% 3.34 +21.6%

BTTS 60.4% 54.3% 1.84 +11.1%

Home O1.5 41.6% 53.5% 1.87 -22.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 26.7% 3.75 +58.3%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.4%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0 8.3%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maccabi Yavne1.5

Hapoel Azor1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MACCABI YAVNE · PPG 1.65

HAPOEL AZOR · PPG 1.11

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Maccabi Yavne (H) 42.2%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -27.0%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.9%

Hapoel Azor (A) 34.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +37.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maccabi Yavne face Hapoel Azor in Israel - Liga Alef on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maccabi Yavne a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Hapoel Azor 34%, so Maccabi Yavne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Maccabi Yavne and 1.4 for Hapoel Azor (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maccabi Yavne are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.11 for Hapoel Azor. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +58.3%.

Maccabi Yavne vs Hapoel Azor Prediction— Israel - Liga Alef

Match Preview & Prediction

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