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Kfar Saba 1928 vs FC Jerusalem Prediction— Israel - Liga Alef

South · Matchday 1 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 11:15

Kfar Saba 1928

PPG 1.23 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Jerusalem

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-18.1%0-25.5%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.7%1-111.8%1-28.1%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-18.6%2-25.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.1%3-14.2%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 34.5% 2.90 +16.6%

Draw 24.1% 29.4% 3.40 -10.8%

Away win 35.7% 47.6% 2.10 -25.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 33.8% 34.7% 2.88 -2.7%

BTTS 58.6% 62.1% 1.61 -5.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 39.4% 2.54 +1.4%

Away O1.5 42.2% 49.8% 2.01 -15.2%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.6%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kfar Saba 19281.5

FC Jerusalem1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KFAR SABA 1928 · PPG 1.23

FC JERUSALEM · PPG 1.53

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kfar Saba 1928 (H) 40.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +16.6%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.8%

FC Jerusalem (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -25.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kfar Saba 1928 face FC Jerusalem in Israel - Liga Alef on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kfar Saba 1928 a 40% chance, the draw 24% and FC Jerusalem 36%, so Kfar Saba 1928 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Kfar Saba 1928 and 1.4 for FC Jerusalem (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kfar Saba 1928 are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.53 for FC Jerusalem. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +1.4%.

Kfar Saba 1928 vs FC Jerusalem Prediction— Israel - Liga Alef

Match Preview & Prediction

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