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Ironi Nesher vs Tzeirey Tamra Prediction— Israel - Liga Alef

North · Matchday 1 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 11:25

Ironi Nesher

PPG 1.41 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tzeirey Tamra

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-18.1%0-25.5%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.8%1-111.9%1-28.0%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.4%2-18.7%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.1%3-14.2%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% 47.6% 2.10 -14.3%

Draw 23.9% 29.4% 3.40 -11.2%

Away win 35.3% 34.5% 2.90 +2.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 58.8% 1.70 -8.5%

Over 3.5 33.6% 37.6% 2.66 -10.6%

BTTS 58.1% 64.1% 1.56 -9.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 51.3% 1.95 -22.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 42.0% 2.38 +0.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.1%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ironi Nesher1.5

Tzeirey Tamra1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

IRONI NESHER · PPG 1.41

TZEIREY TAMRA · PPG 1.35

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ironi Nesher (H) 40.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -14.3%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.2%

Tzeirey Tamra (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ironi Nesher face Tzeirey Tamra in Israel - Liga Alef on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ironi Nesher a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Tzeirey Tamra 35%, so Ironi Nesher are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ironi Nesher and 1.3 for Tzeirey Tamra (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ironi Nesher are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.35 for Tzeirey Tamra. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +0.4%.

Ironi Nesher vs Tzeirey Tamra Prediction— Israel - Liga Alef

Match Preview & Prediction

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