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Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Stal Stalowa Wola Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:30

Chojniczanka Chojnice

PPG 1.02 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Stal Stalowa Wola

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+10.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-18.7%0-27.5%0-34.3%0-4+2.7%1 1-06.4%1-111.0%1-29.4%1-35.4%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.1%2-17.0%2-26.0%2-33.4%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.7%3-12.9%3-22.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.6% 43.5% 2.30 -29.6%

Draw 24.0% 34.5% 2.90 -18.2%

Away win 45.4% 35.7% 2.80 +27.1%

Over 2.5 59.8% 54.1% 1.85 +10.6%

Over 3.5 36.7% 30.8% 3.25 +19.3%

BTTS 61.3% 59.9% 1.67 +2.4%

Home O1.5 37.8% 45.5% 2.20 -16.8%

Away O1.5 48.5% 38.2% 2.62 +27.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.3%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 0–2 7.5%

#5 0–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chojniczanka Chojnice1.3

Stal Stalowa Wola1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHOJNICZANKA CHOJNICE · PPG 1.02

STAL STALOWA WOLA · PPG 1.35

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chojniczanka Chojnice (H) 30.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -29.6%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.2%

Stal Stalowa Wola (A) 45.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +27.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chojniczanka Chojnice face Stal Stalowa Wola in Poland - II Liga - East on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chojniczanka Chojnice a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Stal Stalowa Wola 45%, so Stal Stalowa Wola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Chojniczanka Chojnice and 1.7 for Stal Stalowa Wola (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chojniczanka Chojnice are averaging 1.02 points per game versus 1.35 for Stal Stalowa Wola. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +41.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Stal Stalowa Wola Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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