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Śląsk Wrocław II vs Chojniczanka Chojnice Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 10:00

Śląsk Wrocław II

PPG 1.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chojniczanka Chojnice

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.4%0-21.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.4%1-18.1%1-24.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.7%2-19.6%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.9%3-17.6%3-24.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-17.9%4+-24.3%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.3% 38.2% 2.62 +52.8%

Draw 20.5% 30.3% 3.30 -19.4%

Away win 21.2% 44.4% 2.25 -31.4%

Over 2.5 64.3% 61.7% 1.62 +4.2%

Over 3.5 42.6% 40.0% 2.50 +6.5%

BTTS 61.6% 65.4% 1.53 -5.8%

Home O1.5 63.0% 47.6% 2.10 +32.3%

Away O1.5 34.7% 47.6% 2.10 -27.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 23.1%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.6%

H 58% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Śląsk Wrocław II2.4

Chojniczanka Chojnice1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.3% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ŚLĄSK WROCŁAW II · PPG 1.64

CHOJNICZANKA CHOJNICE · PPG 1.30

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Śląsk Wrocław II (H) 58.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +52.8%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -19.4%

Chojniczanka Chojnice (A) 21.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -31.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Śląsk Wrocław II face Chojniczanka Chojnice in Poland - II Liga - East on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Śląsk Wrocław II a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Chojniczanka Chojnice 21%, so Śląsk Wrocław II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Śląsk Wrocław II and 1.1 for Chojniczanka Chojnice (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Śląsk Wrocław II are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.30 for Chojniczanka Chojnice. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +76.8%.

Śląsk Wrocław II vs Chojniczanka Chojnice Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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