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Durban City vs Orbit College Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Matchday 26 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:30

Durban City

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Orbit College

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLL

// Model verdict

Home 63% chance

Model probability 79.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2% — a clear edge.

+43.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-12.9%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.8%1-16.2%1-21.1%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-019.1%2-16.6%2-21.1%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.6%3-14.7%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-011.9%4+-14.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 79.5% 55.2% 1.81 +43.9%

Draw 15.7% 32.3% 3.10 -51.3%

Away win 4.8% 19.2% 5.20 -75.0%

Over 2.5 45.2% 35.7% 2.80 +26.6%

Over 3.5 23.9% 17.4% 5.75 +37.4%

BTTS 25.8% 42.6% 2.35 -39.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob25.8%

H 80% / xG 2.1-0.3 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 26%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 19.1%

#2 1–0 17.8%

#3 3–0 13.6%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 4–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Durban City2.1

Orbit College0.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.2% · O3.5 PROB 23.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DURBAN CITY · PPG 1.92

ORBIT COLLEGE · PPG 0.67

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

63%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.92), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Durban City (H) 79.5%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV +43.9%

Draw 15.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -51.3%

Orbit College (A) 4.8%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV -75.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Durban City face Orbit College in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Durban City a 80% chance, the draw 16% and Orbit College 5%, so Durban City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Durban City and 0.3 for Orbit College (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 26% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Durban City are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 0.67 for Orbit College. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +43.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Durban City vs Orbit College Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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