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Vlasim vs Prostejov Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Regular Season - 25 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 16:00

Vlasim

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Prostejov

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-14.8%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.8%1-19.5%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.0%3-16.1%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-14.8%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% 63.7% 1.57 +6.5%

Draw 20.2% 27.0% 3.70 -25.3%

Away win 12.0% 19.6% 5.10 -38.8%

Over 2.5 49.6% 56.5% 1.77 -12.2%

Over 3.5 27.7% 33.9% 2.95 -18.3%

BTTS 42.7% 56.5% 1.77 -24.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.7%

H 68% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.8%

#2 2–0 13.6%

#3 1–1✓ 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 3–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vlasim2.0

Prostejov0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VLASIM · PPG 1.50

PROSTEJOV · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Vlasim (H) 67.8%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +6.5%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -25.3%

Prostejov (A) 12.0%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -38.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vlasim face Prostejov in Czech-Republic - FNL on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vlasim a 68% chance, the draw 20% and Prostejov 12%, so Vlasim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Vlasim and 0.7 for Prostejov (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vlasim are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.83 for Prostejov. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Vlasim vs Prostejov Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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