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Usti nad Labem vs Vikto Zizkov Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Regular Season - 25 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 16:00

Usti nad Labem

PPG 1.91 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vikto Zizkov

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+21.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.5%0-21.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.2%1-16.7%1-24.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.9%2-18.8%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.1%3-17.8%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-19.8%4+-26.2%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.6% 51.3% 1.95 +29.9%

Draw 16.9% 28.6% 3.50 -40.8%

Away win 16.4% 30.8% 3.25 -46.7%

Over 2.5 75.0% 61.7% 1.62 +21.5%

Over 3.5 55.1% 38.5% 2.60 +43.3%

BTTS 67.0% 65.4% 1.53 +2.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 79%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob67.0%

H 67% / xG 2.6-1.3 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 3–1 7.8%

#3 2–0 6.9%

#4 1–1 6.7%

#5 3–0✓ 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Usti nad Labem2.6

Vikto Zizkov1.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.0% · O3.5 PROB 55.1%

Form & verdict PPG

USTI NAD LABEM · PPG 1.91

VIKTO ZIZKOV · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.91) > Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Usti nad Labem (H) 66.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +29.9%

Draw 16.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -40.8%

Vikto Zizkov (A) 16.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -46.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Usti nad Labem face Vikto Zizkov in Czech-Republic - FNL on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Usti nad Labem a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Vikto Zizkov 16%, so Usti nad Labem are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Usti nad Labem and 1.3 for Vikto Zizkov (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Usti nad Labem are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.36 for Vikto Zizkov. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +43.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Usti nad Labem vs Vikto Zizkov Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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