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Olimpia Grudziądz vs Podhale Nowy Targ Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:00

Olimpia Grudziądz

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Podhale Nowy Targ

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.1%0-23.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.9%1-19.9%1-26.2%1-32.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.7%2-26.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.0%3-16.3%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.8%4+-23.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 52.4% 1.91 +2.0%

Draw 22.5% 30.8% 3.25 -16.1%

Away win 24.1% 29.4% 3.40 -10.8%

Over 2.5 62.7% 60.6% 1.65 +3.5%

Over 3.5 39.3% 40.0% 2.50 -1.8%

BTTS 60.8% 65.4% 1.53 -7.0%

Home O1.5 56.3% 55.6% 1.80 +1.3%

Away O1.5 36.6% 38.2% 2.62 -4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.8%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–2 6.2%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olimpia Grudziądz2.0

Podhale Nowy Targ1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.7% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

OLIMPIA GRUDZIĄDZ · PPG 1.82

PODHALE NOWY TARG · PPG 1.01

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Olimpia Grudziądz (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +2.0%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.1%

Podhale Nowy Targ (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olimpia Grudziądz face Podhale Nowy Targ in Poland - II Liga - East on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olimpia Grudziądz a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Podhale Nowy Targ 24%, so Olimpia Grudziądz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Olimpia Grudziądz and 1.3 for Podhale Nowy Targ (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olimpia Grudziądz are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.01 for Podhale Nowy Targ. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Olimpia Grudziądz vs Podhale Nowy Targ Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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