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Hutnik Kraków vs Stal Stalowa Wola Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:00

Hutnik Kraków

PPG 2.03 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Stal Stalowa Wola

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+10.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.2%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.8%1-111.0%1-25.6%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.8%3-15.9%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 45.5% 2.20 +16.6%

Draw 23.4% 33.3% 3.00 -17.9%

Away win 23.6% 34.5% 2.90 -18.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 54.1% 1.85 +10.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 33.3% 3.00 +10.1%

BTTS 55.0% 59.9% 1.67 -8.2%

Home O1.5 48.9% 47.6% 2.10 +2.7%

Away O1.5 32.6% 38.2% 2.62 -14.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.0%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1✓ 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hutnik Kraków1.8

Stal Stalowa Wola1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HUTNIK KRAKÓW · PPG 2.03

STAL STALOWA WOLA · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hutnik Kraków (H) 53.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +16.6%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.9%

Stal Stalowa Wola (A) 23.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hutnik Kraków face Stal Stalowa Wola in Poland - II Liga - East on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hutnik Kraków a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Stal Stalowa Wola 24%, so Hutnik Kraków are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hutnik Kraków and 1.0 for Stal Stalowa Wola (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hutnik Kraków are averaging 2.03 points per game versus 1.18 for Stal Stalowa Wola. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +25.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Hutnik Kraków vs Stal Stalowa Wola Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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