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Mamelodi S. vs Stellenbosch Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Matchday 24 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 17:30

Mamelodi S.

PPG 2.82 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Stellenbosch

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWD

// Model verdict

Home 81% chance

Model probability 89.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a clear edge.

+15.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-11.3%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.6%1-13.7%1-20.6%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.8%2-15.4%2-20.9%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-016.3%3-15.2%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-024.1%4+-17.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 89.1% 76.9% 1.30 +15.8%

Draw 8.6% 22.2% 4.50 -61.3%

Away win 2.3% 8.0% 12.50 -71.3%

Over 2.5 62.5% 51.3% 1.95 +21.9%

Over 3.5 40.3% 29.4% 3.40 +37.0%

BTTS 25.8% 41.7% 2.40 -38.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob25.8%

H 89% / xG 2.9-0.3 / O2.5 62% / NoBTTS 26%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.8%

#2 3–0 16.3%

#3 4–0 11.8%

#4 1–0 11.6%

#5 5–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mamelodi S.2.9

Stellenbosch0.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.5% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MAMELODI S. · PPG 2.82

STELLENBOSCH · PPG 1.18

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

81%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.82), Away AVERAGE (1.18) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Mamelodi S. (H) 89.1%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV +15.8%

Draw 8.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -61.3%

Stellenbosch (A) 2.3%

ODDS 12.50 · IMPLIED 8.0% EV -71.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mamelodi S. face Stellenbosch in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mamelodi S. a 89% chance, the draw 9% and Stellenbosch 2%, so Mamelodi S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Mamelodi S. and 0.3 for Stellenbosch (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 26% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mamelodi S. are averaging 2.82 points per game versus 1.18 for Stellenbosch. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +37.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Mamelodi S. vs Stellenbosch Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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