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Žilina II vs Malženice Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 08:30

Žilina II

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Malženice

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.9%0-23.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.0%1-111.5%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.6%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.6%3-15.3%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 45.5% 2.20 +4.3%

Draw 24.6% 31.3% 3.20 -12.8%

Away win 28.0% 35.7% 2.80 -13.0%

Over 2.5 53.9% 58.8% 1.70 -8.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 39.7% 2.52 -20.4%

BTTS 54.7% 64.5% 1.55 -15.2%

Home O1.5 48.2% 51.8% 1.93 -7.0%

Away O1.5 35.6% 44.1% 2.27 -19.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1✓ 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Žilina II1.7

Malženice1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ŽILINA II · PPG 1.45

MALŽENICE · PPG 1.04

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Žilina II (H) 47.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +4.3%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.8%

Malženice (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Žilina II face Malženice in Slovakia - 2. liga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Žilina II a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Malženice 28%, so Žilina II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Žilina II and 1.1 for Malženice (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Žilina II are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.04 for Malženice. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Žilina II vs Malženice Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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