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Považská Bystrica vs Šamorín Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:30

Považská Bystrica

PPG 1.76 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLD

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Šamorín

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.0%0-23.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.0%1-110.8%1-26.4%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.9%3-15.8%3-23.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.0%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 47.6% 2.10 +2.1%

Draw 23.7% 28.6% 3.50 -10.2%

Away win 27.7% 34.5% 2.90 -11.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 36.4% 2.75 +0.7%

BTTS 60.4% 63.7% 1.57 -5.2%

Home O1.5 48.8% 51.8% 1.93 -5.8%

Away O1.5 36.2% 42.6% 2.35 -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.4%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Považská Bystrica1.8

Šamorín1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

POVAŽSKÁ BYSTRICA · PPG 1.76

ŠAMORÍN · PPG 1.63

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Považská Bystrica (H) 48.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +2.1%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.2%

Šamorín (A) 27.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Považská Bystrica face Šamorín in Slovakia - 2. liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Považská Bystrica a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Šamorín 28%, so Považská Bystrica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Považská Bystrica and 1.2 for Šamorín (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Považská Bystrica are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 1.63 for Šamorín. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.4%. This match finished 1-4.

Považská Bystrica vs Šamorín Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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