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Nacional Potosí vs Independiente Petrolero Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:30

Nacional Potosí

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Independiente Petrolero

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-15.8%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.5%1-110.7%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.4%3-16.0%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.2%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 66.7% 1.50 -25.6%

Draw 23.5% 22.7% 4.40 +2.0%

Away win 26.8% 20.0% 5.00 +20.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 70.4% 1.42 -15.2%

Over 3.5 36.6% 48.8% 2.05 -25.0%

BTTS 54.7% 66.7% 1.50 -17.9%

Home O1.5 53.8% 72.5% 1.38 -25.8%

Away O1.5 35.6% 36.4% 2.75 -2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -21.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacional Potosí1.8

Independiente Petrolero1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NACIONAL POTOSÍ · PPG 1.86

INDEPENDIENTE PETROLERO · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nacional Potosí (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -25.6%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +2.0%

Independiente Petrolero (A) 26.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacional Potosí face Independiente Petrolero in Bolivia - Primera División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacional Potosí a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Independiente Petrolero 27%, so Nacional Potosí are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Nacional Potosí and 1.1 for Independiente Petrolero (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacional Potosí are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.57 for Independiente Petrolero. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +19.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Nacional Potosí vs Independiente Petrolero Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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