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Aurora vs Real Potosí Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 21:15

Aurora

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Real Potosí

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-19.9%0-25.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.8%1-113.0%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.7%2-18.5%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.4%3-13.7%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 61.0% 1.64 -37.0%

Draw 26.1% 26.3% 3.80 -0.5%

Away win 35.4% 22.2% 4.50 +59.3%

Over 2.5 50.2% 61.7% 1.62 -18.7%

Over 3.5 28.4% 40.0% 2.50 -17.4%

BTTS 53.0% 63.7% 1.57 -16.8%

Home O1.5 37.8% 63.7% 1.57 -40.6%

Away O1.5 35.5% 34.5% 2.90 +2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -21.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 0–0✓ 9.1%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aurora1.3

Real Potosí1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AURORA · PPG 1.71

REAL POTOSÍ · PPG 1.29

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.21, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aurora (H) 38.4%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -37.0%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -0.5%

Real Potosí (A) 35.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +59.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aurora face Real Potosí in Bolivia - Primera División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aurora a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Real Potosí 35%, so Aurora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Aurora and 1.1 for Real Potosí (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aurora are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.29 for Real Potosí. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +29.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Aurora vs Real Potosí Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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