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ABB vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 19:00

ABB

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 56.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-14.7%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.6%1-19.7%1-24.4%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.4%3-16.8%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-15.5%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 56.5% 1.77 -1.1%

Draw 22.2% 26.3% 3.80 -9.4%

Away win 21.9% 27.4% 3.65 -12.0%

Over 2.5 56.8% 69.4% 1.44 -18.2%

Over 3.5 35.5% 48.8% 2.05 -27.2%

BTTS 54.6% 71.4% 1.40 -23.6%

Home O1.5 58.4% 65.4% 1.53 -10.7%

Away O1.5 23.8% 44.4% 2.25 -27.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -21.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ABB2.0

Gualberto Villarroel SJ0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ABB · PPG 1.71

GUALBERTO VILLARROEL SJ · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

ABB (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -1.1%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.4%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

ABB face Gualberto Villarroel SJ in Bolivia - Primera División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ABB a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Gualberto Villarroel SJ 22%, so ABB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for ABB and 0.9 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ABB are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.43 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ. This match finished 2-2.

ABB vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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