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Vlasim vs Pribram Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Vlasim

PPG 1.55 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Pribram

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-17.5%0-23.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.3%1-111.9%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.4%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.5%3-15.0%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 52.4% 1.91 +2.0%

Draw 25.2% 29.0% 3.45 -13.1%

Away win 21.4% 29.0% 3.45 -26.2%

Over 2.5 45.1% 55.6% 1.80 -18.8%

Over 3.5 23.8% 33.3% 3.00 -28.6%

BTTS 47.1% 59.9% 1.67 -21.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.1%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.3%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 2–0 10.5%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0✓ 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vlasim1.6

Pribram0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VLASIM · PPG 1.55

PRIBRAM · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.55), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Vlasim (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +2.0%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.1%

Pribram (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -26.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vlasim face Pribram in Czech-Republic - FNL on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vlasim a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Pribram 21%, so Vlasim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Vlasim and 0.9 for Pribram (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vlasim are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.67 for Pribram. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Vlasim vs Pribram Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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