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Usti nad Labem vs Chrudim Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Usti nad Labem

PPG 1.80 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Chrudim

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 83.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a clear edge.

+27.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.3%0-20.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.5%1-14.4%1-22.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.4%2 2-05.9%2-17.2%2-24.4%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.4%3-17.9%3-24.9%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-012.3%4+-115.1%4+-29.3%4+-33.8%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.2% 56.5% 1.77 +36.6%

Draw 12.5% 27.0% 3.70 -53.8%

Away win 10.4% 26.7% 3.75 -61.0%

Over 2.5 83.1% 65.4% 1.53 +27.1%

Over 3.5 66.4% 43.5% 2.30 +52.7%

BTTS 68.2% 67.6% 1.48 +0.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 82%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob68.2%

H 77% / xG 3.3-1.2 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 7.2%

#3 4–1 6.6%

#4 3–0 6.4%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Usti nad Labem3.3

Chrudim1.2

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.1% · O3.5 PROB 66.4%

Form & verdict PPG

USTI NAD LABEM · PPG 1.80

CHRUDIM · PPG 0.90

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.80), Away POOR (0.90) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Usti nad Labem (H) 77.2%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV +36.6%

Draw 12.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -53.8%

Chrudim (A) 10.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -61.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Usti nad Labem face Chrudim in Czech-Republic - FNL on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Usti nad Labem a 77% chance, the draw 13% and Chrudim 10%, so Usti nad Labem are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Usti nad Labem and 1.2 for Chrudim (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Usti nad Labem are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.90 for Chrudim. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +52.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Usti nad Labem vs Chrudim Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Czech-Republic - FNL Predictions