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The Strongest vs Universitario de Vinto Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 16 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 22:30

The Strongest

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Universitario de Vinto

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 69.1% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-12.7%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.7%1-16.9%1-22.4%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.5%2-18.8%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.7%3-17.5%3-22.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.6%4+-19.0%4+-23.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.1% 87.7% 1.14 -21.2%

Draw 16.4% 15.4% 6.50 +4.0%

Away win 14.5% 7.1% 14.00 +61.8%

Over 2.5 63.1% 74.1% 1.35 -14.8%

Over 3.5 39.4% 54.1% 1.85 -27.1%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 65.1% 84.7% 1.18 -23.2%

Away O1.5 17.9% 20.0% 5.00 -6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -21.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.0%

H 69% / xG 2.6-0.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.5%

#2 3–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 1–1 6.9%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

The Strongest2.6

Universitario de Vinto0.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

THE STRONGEST · PPG 1.71

UNIVERSITARIO DE VINTO · PPG 0.43

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.86 for Home, form 1.71 vs 0.43 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

The Strongest (H) 69.1%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -21.2%

Draw 16.4%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +4.0%

Universitario de Vinto (A) 14.5%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +61.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

The Strongest face Universitario de Vinto in Bolivia - Primera División on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives The Strongest a 69% chance, the draw 16% and Universitario de Vinto 14%, so The Strongest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for The Strongest and 0.7 for Universitario de Vinto (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, The Strongest are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.43 for Universitario de Vinto. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +33.2%. This match finished 4-3.

The Strongest vs Universitario de Vinto Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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