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First Vienna W vs Sturm Graz W Prediction— Austria - Frauenliga

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 17:30

First Vienna W

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sturm Graz W

PPG 2.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.5%0-26.1%0-34.5%0-4+4.3%1 1-03.6%1-18.1%1-29.0%1-36.7%1-4+6.3%2 2-02.7%2-16.0%2-26.7%2-34.9%2-4+4.6%3 3-01.3%3-12.9%3-23.3%3-32.4%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.5%4+-21.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.7% — — —

Draw 21.3% — — —

Away win 52.0% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 43.5% — — —

BTTS 63.2% — — —

Home O1.5 40.0% — — —

Away O1.5 65.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.0%

#2 1–1✓ 8.1%

#3 2–1 6.0%

#4 1–3 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

First Vienna W1.5

Sturm Graz W2.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FIRST VIENNA W · PPG 1.51

STURM GRAZ W · PPG 2.02

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.75 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

First Vienna W (H) 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sturm Graz W (A) 52.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

First Vienna W face Sturm Graz W in Austria - Frauenliga on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives First Vienna W a 27% chance, the draw 21% and Sturm Graz W 52%, so Sturm Graz W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for First Vienna W and 2.2 for Sturm Graz W (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, First Vienna W are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 2.02 for Sturm Graz W. This match finished 1-1.

First Vienna W vs Sturm Graz W Prediction— Austria - Frauenliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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