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Austria Wien W vs Sturm Graz W Prediction— Austria - Frauenliga

Championship Group - 21 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

Austria Wien W

PPG 3.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sturm Graz W

PPG 2.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-13.6%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.0%1-18.1%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-19.2%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.2%3-16.9%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.7%4+-16.6%4+-22.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.4% 82.0% 1.22 -25.1%

Draw 23.6% 20.0% 5.00 +10.8%

Away win 15.0% 11.1% 9.00 +21.0%

Over 2.5 59.3% 66.7% 1.50 -11.1%

Over 3.5 33.7% 45.5% 2.20 -25.9%

BTTS 51.0% 51.3% 1.95 -0.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.0%

H 61% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.5%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 3–0 10.2%

#4 1–1 8.1%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Austria Wien W2.3

Sturm Graz W0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AUSTRIA WIEN W · PPG 3.00

STURM GRAZ W · PPG 2.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=61.4%

Win probability 1X2

Austria Wien W (H) 61.4%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -25.1%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +10.8%

Sturm Graz W (A) 15.0%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Austria Wien W face Sturm Graz W in Austria - Frauenliga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Austria Wien W a 61% chance, the draw 24% and Sturm Graz W 15%, so Austria Wien W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Austria Wien W and 0.7 for Sturm Graz W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Austria Wien W are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.18 for Sturm Graz W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Austria Wien W vs Sturm Graz W Prediction— Austria - Frauenliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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