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Huracán Res. vs Independiente Riva. Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 18:00

Huracán Res.

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Independiente Riva. Res.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-18.6%0-23.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.4%1-112.2%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.5%2-18.6%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.4%3-14.0%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 51.3% 1.95 -6.2%

Draw 27.2% 34.5% 2.90 -12.7%

Away win 24.7% 27.8% 3.60 -6.7%

Over 2.5 42.7% 45.5% 2.20 -6.1%

Over 3.5 20.6% 26.0% 3.85 -12.4%

BTTS 47.6% 52.4% 1.91 -9.1%

Home O1.5 40.0% 46.1% 2.17 -13.2%

Away O1.5 17.9% 28.6% 3.50 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.4%

#2 1–1 12.2%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 2–0✓ 11.5%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Huracán Res.1.4

Independiente Riva. Res.0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HURACÁN RES. · PPG 1.45

INDEPENDIENTE RIVA. RES. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Huracán Res. (H) 48.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -6.2%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.7%

Independiente Riva. Res. (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Huracán Res. face Independiente Riva. Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Huracán Res. a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Independiente Riva. Res. 25%, so Huracán Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Huracán Res. and 0.7 for Independiente Riva. Res. (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Huracán Res. are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.00 for Independiente Riva. Res.. This match finished 2-0.

Huracán Res. vs Independiente Riva. Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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