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Juventud de Bernal vs SAT Moreno Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Matchday 11 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 16:00

Juventud de Bernal

PPG 0.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLD

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

SAT Moreno

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -2.08 for Away, form 0.20 vs 1.80

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-114.0%0-217.3%0-314.3%0-4+16.0%1 1-02.2%1-15.5%1-26.9%1-35.7%1-4+6.4%2 2-00.4%2-11.1%2-21.4%2-31.1%2-4+1.3%3 3-00.1%3-10.1%3-20.2%3-30.1%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.4% 7.7% 13.00 +36.7%

Draw 16.6% 15.4% 6.50 +4.7%

Away win 71.0% 87.7% 1.14 -19.1%

Over 2.5 58.1% 63.7% 1.57 -8.8%

Over 3.5 35.5% 42.0% 2.38 -15.5%

BTTS 43.6% 36.4% 2.75 +19.9%

Home O1.5 28.6% 8.9% 11.25 +133.1%

Away O1.5 65.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob43.6%

A 71% / xG 0.4-2.5 / O2.5 58% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 17.3%

#2 0–3✓ 14.3%

#3 0–1 14.0%

#4 0–4 8.9%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventud de Bernal0.4

SAT Moreno2.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUD DE BERNAL · PPG 0.20

SAT MORENO · PPG 1.80

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -2.08 for Away, form 0.20 vs 1.80

Win probability 1X2

Juventud de Bernal (H) 12.4%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +36.7%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +4.7%

SAT Moreno (A) 71.0%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventud de Bernal face SAT Moreno in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventud de Bernal a 12% chance, the draw 17% and SAT Moreno 71%, so SAT Moreno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.4 for Juventud de Bernal and 2.5 for SAT Moreno (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventud de Bernal are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 1.80 for SAT Moreno. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +133.1%. This match finished 0-3.

Juventud de Bernal vs SAT Moreno Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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