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Nacional Potosí vs ABB Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 15 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 21:15

Nacional Potosí

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

ABB

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.5%0-21.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.2%1-16.7%1-24.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.8%2-18.8%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.0%3-17.8%3-25.0%3-32.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-19.7%4+-26.3%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 76.9% 1.30 -26.9%

Draw 20.8% 18.5% 5.40 +7.4%

Away win 23.0% 14.7% 6.80 +33.8%

Over 2.5 67.4% 75.2% 1.33 -10.4%

Over 3.5 47.2% 54.1% 1.85 -12.7%

BTTS 63.3% 64.5% 1.55 -1.9%

Home O1.5 63.4% 80.0% 1.25 -20.8%

Away O1.5 36.6% 31.3% 3.20 +17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -12.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.3%

H 56% / xG 2.6-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 3–1 7.8%

#3 1–1 6.7%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 3–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacional Potosí2.6

ABB1.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NACIONAL POTOSÍ · PPG 1.67

ABB · PPG 0.57

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.36 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nacional Potosí (H) 56.2%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -26.9%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +7.4%

ABB (A) 23.0%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +33.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacional Potosí face ABB in Bolivia - Primera División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacional Potosí a 56% chance, the draw 21% and ABB 23%, so Nacional Potosí are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Nacional Potosí and 1.3 for ABB (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacional Potosí are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.57 for ABB. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +27.4%.

Nacional Potosí vs ABB Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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