Today / Bolivia - Primera División / Independiente Petrolero vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ

Independiente Petrolero vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 15 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 23:30

Independiente Petrolero

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-16.0%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.2%1-110.8%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.0%3-15.8%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 58.8% 1.70 -9.2%

Draw 24.4% 26.3% 3.80 -4.4%

Away win 22.2% 26.3% 3.80 -9.4%

Over 2.5 52.0% 65.4% 1.53 -20.4%

Over 3.5 30.0% 45.5% 2.20 -34.0%

BTTS 53.1% 66.7% 1.50 -20.3%

Home O1.5 49.2% 63.7% 1.57 -22.8%

Away O1.5 21.1% 38.2% 2.62 -26.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -12.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 11.8%

#3 1–0 13.2%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente Petrolero1.8

Gualberto Villarroel SJ0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE PETROLERO · PPG 1.14

GUALBERTO VILLARROEL SJ · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independiente Petrolero (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -9.2%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.4%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ (A) 22.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente Petrolero face Gualberto Villarroel SJ in Bolivia - Primera División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente Petrolero a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Gualberto Villarroel SJ 22%, so Independiente Petrolero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Independiente Petrolero and 0.8 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente Petrolero are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.50 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ.

Independiente Petrolero vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bolivia - Primera División Predictions