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Trelleborg W vs Gamla Upsala W Prediction— Sweden - Elitettan

Matchday 13 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Trelleborg W

PPG 2.17 · HOME

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Gamla Upsala W

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-16.5%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.3%1-111.3%1-25.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.7%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.1%3-15.6%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 76.9% 1.30 -29.7%

Draw 24.7% 20.4% 4.90 +12.6%

Away win 21.2% 13.3% 7.50 +35.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 74.6% 1.34 -28.3%

Over 3.5 32.3% 53.2% 1.88 -39.3%

BTTS 53.1% 62.5% 1.60 -15.0%

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 25.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 2–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trelleborg W1.7

Gamla Upsala W0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TRELLEBORG W · PPG 2.17

GAMLA UPSALA W · PPG 1.40

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Trelleborg W (H) 54.1%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -29.7%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +12.6%

Gamla Upsala W (A) 21.2%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +35.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trelleborg W face Gamla Upsala W in Sweden - Elitettan on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trelleborg W a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Gamla Upsala W 21%, so Trelleborg W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Trelleborg W and 0.9 for Gamla Upsala W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trelleborg W are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.40 for Gamla Upsala W. This match finished 4-4.

Trelleborg W vs Gamla Upsala W Prediction— Sweden - Elitettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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