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Umeå W vs Jitex W Prediction— Sweden - Elitettan

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

Umeå W

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jitex W

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.3%0-24.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.4%1-112.3%1-27.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.0%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.8%3-14.4%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 29.5% — — —

Over 2.5 52.2% — — —

Over 3.5 30.0% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 34.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 7.1%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Umeå W1.5

Jitex W1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UMEÅ W · PPG 1.33

JITEX W · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Umeå W (H) 44.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Jitex W (A) 29.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Umeå W face Jitex W in Sweden - Elitettan on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umeå W a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Jitex W 30%, so Umeå W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Umeå W and 1.2 for Jitex W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umeå W are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Jitex W.

Umeå W vs Jitex W Prediction— Sweden - Elitettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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