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Tucuman Central vs Atletico Escobar Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 19:00

Tucuman Central

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atletico Escobar

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-17.5%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.2%1-111.5%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-18.9%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.4%3-14.6%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% — — —

Draw 26.1% — — —

Away win 22.7% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 26.7% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.2%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 2–0 12.5%

#4 0–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tucuman Central1.5

Atletico Escobar0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TUCUMAN CENTRAL · PPG 2.00

ATLETICO ESCOBAR · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tucuman Central (H) 51.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Atletico Escobar (A) 22.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tucuman Central face Atletico Escobar in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tucuman Central a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Atletico Escobar 23%, so Tucuman Central are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Tucuman Central and 0.7 for Atletico Escobar (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tucuman Central are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Atletico Escobar.

Tucuman Central vs Atletico Escobar Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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