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Świt Skolwin vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 15:00

Świt Skolwin

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-18.3%0-27.2%0-34.1%0-4+2.6%1 1-06.3%1-110.9%1-29.4%1-35.4%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.1%2-17.1%2-26.1%2-33.5%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.8%3-13.1%3-22.7%3-31.5%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.9% 34.5% 2.90 -7.5%

Draw 25.0% 30.3% 3.30 -10.5%

Away win 43.2% 48.8% 2.05 -11.4%

Over 2.5 55.2% 58.8% 1.70 -6.2%

Over 3.5 34.6% 38.2% 2.62 -9.3%

BTTS 54.5% 63.7% 1.57 -14.4%

Home O1.5 37.9% 44.4% 2.25 -14.7%

Away O1.5 47.7% 50.0% 2.00 -4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 23.1%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.5%

A 43% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 7.1%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Świt Skolwin1.3

Sandecja Nowy Sącz1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.2% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ŚWIT SKOLWIN · PPG 1.30

SANDECJA NOWY SĄCZ · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Świt Skolwin (H) 31.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -7.5%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.5%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (A) 43.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Świt Skolwin face Sandecja Nowy Sącz in Poland - II Liga - East on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Świt Skolwin a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Sandecja Nowy Sącz 43%, so Sandecja Nowy Sącz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Świt Skolwin and 1.7 for Sandecja Nowy Sącz (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Świt Skolwin are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.38 for Sandecja Nowy Sącz. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +16.0%.

Świt Skolwin vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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