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Næsby vs Sundby Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Regular Season - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 12:00

Næsby

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sundby

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-13.8%0-22.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.4%1-18.6%1-25.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.3%2-19.7%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.2%3-17.3%3-24.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-16.9%4+-24.0%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 61.7% 1.62 -9.3%

Draw 22.3% 24.4% 4.10 -5.1%

Away win 21.8% 25.0% 4.00 -7.7%

Over 2.5 64.0% 69.4% 1.44 -7.8%

Over 3.5 41.9% 49.5% 2.02 -15.4%

BTTS 62.1% 69.4% 1.44 -10.6%

Home O1.5 60.1% 69.4% 1.44 -13.5%

Away O1.5 36.5% 39.4% 2.54 -7.3%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.1%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 3–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Næsby2.2

Sundby1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NÆSBY · PPG 1.86

SUNDBY · PPG 0.85

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.08 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Næsby (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -9.3%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.1%

Sundby (A) 21.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Næsby face Sundby in Denmark - 3. Division on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Næsby a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Sundby 22%, so Næsby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Næsby and 1.2 for Sundby (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Næsby are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.85 for Sundby.

Næsby vs Sundby Prediction— Denmark - 3. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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