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Fernando De La Mora vs Benjamín Aceval Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 19 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 22:00

Fernando De La Mora

PPG 0.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Benjamín Aceval

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.78 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-111.0%0-29.8%0-35.8%0-4+3.9%1 1-06.2%1-111.0%1-29.8%1-35.8%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.1%2-15.5%2-24.9%2-32.9%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.0%3-11.8%3-21.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.7% — — —

Draw 24.1% — — —

Away win 49.1% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -21.4%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob54.5%

A 49% / xG 1.0-1.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 9.8%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fernando De La Mora1.0

Benjamín Aceval1.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FERNANDO DE LA MORA · PPG 0.78

BENJAMÍN ACEVAL · PPG 1.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.78 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Fernando De La Mora (H) 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Benjamín Aceval (A) 49.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fernando De La Mora face Benjamín Aceval in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fernando De La Mora a 27% chance, the draw 24% and Benjamín Aceval 49%, so Benjamín Aceval are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Fernando De La Mora and 1.8 for Benjamín Aceval (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fernando De La Mora are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.89 for Benjamín Aceval.

Fernando De La Mora vs Benjamín Aceval Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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