Today / Poland - III Liga - Group 2 / Victoria Września vs Luzino

Victoria Września vs Luzino Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II · Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 16:00

Victoria Września

PPG 1.08 · HOME

UPCOMING

Luzino

PPG 1.96 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -1.21 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-15.7%0-27.1%0-35.9%0-4+6.7%1 1-02.9%1-17.3%1-29.1%1-37.6%1-4+8.6%2 2-01.9%2-14.7%2-25.9%2-34.9%2-4+5.5%3 3-00.8%3-12.0%3-22.5%3-32.1%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.3% — — —

Draw 21.0% — — —

Away win 55.7% — — —

Over 2.5 64.7% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 37.9% — — —

Away O1.5 64.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob61.6%

A 56% / xG 1.3-2.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.1%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 1–3 7.6%

#4 0–2 7.1%

#5 0–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Victoria Września1.3

Luzino2.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VICTORIA WRZEŚNIA · PPG 1.08

LUZINO · PPG 1.96

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.21 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Victoria Września (H) 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Luzino (A) 55.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Victoria Września face Luzino in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Victoria Września a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Luzino 56%, so Luzino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Victoria Września and 2.5 for Luzino (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Victoria Września are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.96 for Luzino.

Victoria Września vs Luzino Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - III Liga - Group 2 Predictions