Today / Poland - III Liga - Group 2 / Unia Swarzędz vs Noteć Czarnków
Unia Swarzędz vs Noteć Czarnków Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2
Group II · Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 16:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 50% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%
Form & verdict
UNIA SWARZĘDZ · PPG 1.36
NOTEĆ CZARNKÓW · PPG 1.23
xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Unia Swarzędz face Noteć Czarnków in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Unia Swarzędz a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Noteć Czarnków 26%, so Unia Swarzędz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Unia Swarzędz and 1.2 for Noteć Czarnków (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Unia Swarzędz are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.23 for Noteć Czarnków.