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DEAC vs Tarpa Prediction— Hungary - NB III - Northeast

Northeast · Matchday 2 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 15:30

DEAC

PPG 1.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tarpa

PPG 1.26 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.24 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-14.3%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.3%1-19.2%1-24.1%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.8%3-17.0%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-16.2%4+-22.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.8% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 21.0% — — —

Over 2.5 59.5% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 59.9% — — —

Away O1.5 23.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 17%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 58% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 1–1 9.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 3–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DEAC2.1

Tarpa0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEAC · PPG 1.91

TARPA · PPG 1.26

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.24 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

DEAC (H) 57.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tarpa (A) 21.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

DEAC face Tarpa in Hungary - NB III - Northeast on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DEAC a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Tarpa 21%, so DEAC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for DEAC and 0.9 for Tarpa (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DEAC are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.26 for Tarpa.

DEAC vs Tarpa Prediction— Hungary - NB III - Northeast

Match Preview & Prediction

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