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Slovan Bratislava II vs Šamorín Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 08:30

Slovan Bratislava II

PPG 1.24 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Šamorín

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.7%0-26.0%0-33.1%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.1%1-111.2%1-28.7%1-34.5%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.1%2-26.3%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.5%3-13.9%3-23.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 38.5% 2.60 -3.5%

Draw 25.4% 29.0% 3.45 -7.4%

Away win 37.5% 42.6% 2.35 -11.9%

Over 2.5 60.4% 58.8% 1.70 +2.7%

Over 3.5 36.8% 36.4% 2.75 +1.2%

BTTS 61.8% 64.5% 1.55 -4.2%

Home O1.5 45.4% 45.5% 2.20 -0.1%

Away O1.5 48.2% 48.8% 2.05 -1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -16.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.8%

A 38% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2✓ 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slovan Bratislava II1.4

Šamorín1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SLOVAN BRATISLAVA II · PPG 1.24

ŠAMORÍN · PPG 1.35

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Slovan Bratislava II (H) 37.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -3.5%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -7.4%

Šamorín (A) 37.5%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slovan Bratislava II face Šamorín in Slovakia - 2. liga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slovan Bratislava II a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Šamorín 38%, so Šamorín are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Slovan Bratislava II and 1.6 for Šamorín (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slovan Bratislava II are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 1.35 for Šamorín. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Slovan Bratislava II vs Šamorín Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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