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Magesi vs Durban City Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Regular Season - 25 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 15:30

Magesi

PPG 1.09 · HOME

5 – 2

FULL TIME

Durban City

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.6%0-116.4%0-26.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.7%1-112.7%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-06.5%2-14.9%2-21.9%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.7%3-11.3%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% 40.3% 2.48 -19.9%

Draw 36.3% 34.5% 2.90 +5.3%

Away win 31.4% 31.7% 3.15 -1.1%

Over 2.5 19.9% 32.3% 3.10 -38.3%

Over 3.5 7.0% 15.4% 6.50 -54.5%

BTTS 28.6% 42.0% 2.38 -31.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob28.6%

D 36% / xG 0.8-0.8 / U2.5 20% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.6%

#2 1–0 16.7%

#3 0–1 16.4%

#4 1–1 12.7%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magesi0.8

Durban City0.8

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 19.9% · O3.5 PROB 7.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGESI · PPG 1.09

DURBAN CITY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.09), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Magesi (H) 32.3%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -19.9%

Draw 36.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +5.3%

Durban City (A) 31.4%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Magesi face Durban City in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magesi a 32% chance, the draw 36% and Durban City 31%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for Magesi and 0.8 for Durban City (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 20% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magesi are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.00 for Durban City. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 5-2.

Magesi vs Durban City Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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