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Ajka vs Karcag SE Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:30

Ajka

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Karcag SE

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.4 puts the goal expectation near the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-18.3%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.6%1-112.3%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.1%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.0%3-14.5%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% — — —

Draw 27.2% — — —

Away win 23.0% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 49.0% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 23.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 58%

ROI -18.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.0%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.3%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 0–0 9.2%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ajka1.5

Karcag SE0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AJKA · PPG 1.67

KARCAG SE · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ajka (H) 49.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Karcag SE (A) 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ajka face Karcag SE in Hungary - NB II on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ajka a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Karcag SE 23%, so Ajka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ajka and 0.9 for Karcag SE (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ajka are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.07 for Karcag SE. This match finished 1-1.

Ajka vs Karcag SE Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

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