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Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom vs Malženice Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:00

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

PPG 1.42 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Malženice

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.

+12.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.4%0-22.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.2%1-17.8%1-25.8%1-32.9%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.9%2-18.9%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.5%3-16.8%3-25.1%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-16.7%4+-25.0%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 48.8% 2.05 +4.8%

Draw 22.4% 29.0% 3.45 -13.6%

Away win 26.5% 32.3% 3.10 -10.7%

Over 2.5 63.8% 56.5% 1.77 +12.9%

Over 3.5 43.0% 33.9% 2.95 +26.9%

BTTS 62.9% 61.7% 1.62 +1.9%

Home O1.5 62.4% 51.3% 1.95 +21.7%

Away O1.5 47.2% 39.2% 2.55 +20.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -16.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.9%

H 51% / xG 2.3-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 7.8%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 3–1 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom2.3

Malženice1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BANÍK LEHOTA P.VTÁČNIKOM · PPG 1.42

MALŽENICE · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom (H) 51.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +4.8%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.6%

Malženice (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom face Malženice in Slovakia - 2. liga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom a 51% chance, the draw 22% and Malženice 27%, so Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom and 1.5 for Malženice (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 0.94 for Malženice. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +40.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom vs Malženice Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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