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Skellefteå vs Lucksta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Promotion Round ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:00

Skellefteå

PPG 2.17 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lucksta

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.4%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.6%1-18.1%1-24.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-19.6%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.1%3-17.6%3-24.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-18.0%4+-24.3%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.2% 63.7% 1.57 -8.6%

Draw 21.2% 25.3% 3.95 -9.8%

Away win 20.6% 24.4% 4.10 -9.3%

Over 2.5 67.2% 73.5% 1.36 -8.6%

Over 3.5 44.0% 52.4% 1.91 -16.0%

BTTS 62.0% — — —

Home O1.5 62.4% — — —

Away O1.5 35.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.0%

H 58% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 3–0✓ 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skellefteå2.4

Lucksta1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SKELLEFTEÅ · PPG 2.17

LUCKSTA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.31 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Skellefteå (H) 58.2%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -8.6%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -9.8%

Lucksta (A) 20.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skellefteå face Lucksta in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skellefteå a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Lucksta 21%, so Skellefteå are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Skellefteå and 1.1 for Lucksta (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skellefteå are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.33 for Lucksta. This match finished 3-0.

Skellefteå vs Lucksta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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