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Gottne vs IFK Luleå Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Promotion Round ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Gottne

PPG 1.83 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

IFK Luleå

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.7%0-23.7%0-33.4%0-4+4.4%1 1-01.9%1-15.1%1-27.0%1-36.3%1-4+8.4%2 2-01.8%2-14.8%2-26.6%2-36.0%2-4+7.9%3 3-01.1%3-13.0%3-24.1%3-33.7%3-4+4.9%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-12.2%4+-23.0%4+-32.7%4+-4+3.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 34.7% 2.88 -13.0%

Draw 21.0% 27.0% 3.70 -13.4%

Away win 48.8% 51.8% 1.93 -5.8%

Over 2.5 73.5% 71.4% 1.40 +2.9%

Over 3.5 54.0% 49.5% 2.02 +9.1%

BTTS 69.6% 71.4% 1.40 -2.6%

Home O1.5 55.4% 48.8% 2.05 +13.6%

Away O1.5 65.0% 62.5% 1.60 +4.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob69.6%

A 49% / xG 1.9-2.7 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.0%

#2 2–2 6.6%

#3 1–3 6.3%

#4 2–3 6.0%

#5 1–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gottne1.9

IFK Luleå2.7

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GOTTNE · PPG 1.83

IFK LULEÅ · PPG 2.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.85 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Gottne (H) 30.2%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -13.0%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -13.4%

IFK Luleå (A) 48.8%

ODDS 1.93 · IMPLIED 51.8% EV -5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gottne face IFK Luleå in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gottne a 30% chance, the draw 21% and IFK Luleå 49%, so IFK Luleå are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Gottne and 2.7 for IFK Luleå (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gottne are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 2.50 for IFK Luleå. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +13.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Gottne vs IFK Luleå Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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