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Storfors vs Umea FF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Relegation Round ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Storfors

PPG 0.67 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Umea FF

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-14.8%0-26.0%0-34.9%0-4+5.4%1 1-02.9%1-17.1%1-28.7%1-37.2%1-4+7.9%2 2-02.1%2-15.2%2-26.4%2-35.3%2-4+5.8%3 3-01.0%3-12.5%3-23.1%3-32.6%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.3%4+-21.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 55.2% — — —

Over 2.5 67.2% — — —

Over 3.5 46.5% — — —

BTTS 64.3% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 65.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob64.3%

A 55% / xG 1.5-2.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.7%

#2 1–1 7.1%

#3 1–3 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Storfors1.5

Umea FF2.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 46.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STORFORS · PPG 0.67

UMEA FF · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.00 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Storfors (H) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Umea FF (A) 55.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Storfors face Umea FF in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Storfors a 24% chance, the draw 21% and Umea FF 55%, so Umea FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Storfors and 2.5 for Umea FF (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Storfors are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.50 for Umea FF. This match finished 4-1.

Storfors vs Umea FF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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